Why the West Still Gets the Ukraine War Wrong

As Ukraine enters its fifth winter of Russia's war, The Independent reports that Ukrainian bravery and resilience remain unquestioned, and President Volodymyr Zelensky remains determined to resist the aggression and protect his nation. The paper warns that what Russia has failed to achieve on the battlefield it may win at the negotiating table, calling it an ultimate betrayal of a free people and a tragedy for Ukraine and the wider European family of nations.

Peace talks led by President Trump's personal envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are going badly in Abu Dhabi and Dublin, according to The Independent. The paper says the envoys mistake an urgent attempt to close down a war of aggression for leisurely mediation over disputed territory between two parties with equal claims. It describes Witkoff as lavishing praise on Vladimir Putin as a great humanitarian, while Putin returns the compliment, and says the two have only once set foot in Ukraine, two months ago.

The Independent calls Witkoff and Kushner amateur diplomats chosen purely for their closeness to Trump, one a real estate associate and the other his son-in-law, and says they have been drawn into the Kremlin's agenda like babes in the wood charmed by a friendly but deadly bear. It reports that Putin has revived old talking points questioning Ukraine's right to exist and proposed a European security framework involving NATO forces withdrawing from eastern and central Europe, effectively restoring the pre-Berlin Wall status quo.

Moscow proposes non-aggression pacts with individual European nations rather than dealing with the European Union, NATO, or the coalition of the willing, which The Independent says would fracture European allies and leave them ripe for Russian occupation. Putin demands no foreign troops or peacekeepers on Ukrainian territory, declaring any such forces legitimate targets and a casus belli for future invasion and annexation. The paper quotes Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov: "The Europeans squabble like spiders in a jar. If someone takes the initiative to establish contact with the Russian side, such people are facing ostracism."

The Independent notes there is no single figure or team that can speak authoritatively for Europe, including states outside the EU such as Britain and Norway, and no agreed European diplomatic plan or policy on a peace deal. It warns the coalition of the willing could become a coalition of the unwilling if Marine Le Pen becomes president of France next May. Meanwhile, Russians continue to destroy power infrastructure and water supplies and bomb apartment blocks in Kyiv, the Donbas, and across Ukraine, intending to freeze and starve Ukraine into surrender. The paper says attrition will worsen if vital Starshield and Starlink systems are denied to Kyiv, as Zelensky says is happening at present. It concludes that Russia can only win this war if the West lets it do so, and that appears to be precisely what is happening.