Why are gas prices dropping and how low will they go?

The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline dropped below $4 on November 12 for the first time since July, falling nearly 20 cents in the past week to $3.90, according to AAA. Over the last month, the average has declined 45 cents, with most of that drop occurring in the past seven days. The Midwest saw the steepest weekly declines: Michigan fell nearly 39 cents, Ohio 34 cents, Wisconsin 31 cents, and Illinois 27 cents. Over the month, North Carolina led with a 73-cent drop, followed by Idaho at 71 cents, Michigan at 70 cents, California at 67 cents, and New Mexico at 65 cents.

AAA attributed the decline to falling crude oil prices, the seasonal switch to cheaper winter-blend gasoline, and lower autumn demand. Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline demand decreased from 8.80 million barrels per day to 8.76 million, while total domestic supply rose from 209 million barrels to 210.8 million. Gasoline production slipped from 9.70 million to 9.62 million barrels per day. U.S. crude inventories increased 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million, still 4% below the five-year average. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $86.53 per barrel, up 49 cents on the day.

Despite the drop, AAA said the national average remains higher than normal for this time of year, and November 2026 is on track to be the most expensive November on record for gas prices. Prices are 83 cents higher than a year ago, a rise AAA linked to the ongoing war in Iran and instability along the Strait of Hormuz. The most expensive state averages were Hawaii and California at $5.63, Nevada at $4.96, and Washington at $4.90. The least expensive were North Carolina at $3.18, Texas at $3.38, and Georgia at $3.40. The national average price for public EV charging held steady at 42 cents per kilowatt hour.