Mortgage Rate Sharply Higher After Inflation Data

Mortgage rates have pulled back sharply since peaking near 7.4% in mid-October, according to Marketplace.org, which cites Penn IUR Co-Director Susan Wachter of Wharton. Wachter links the decline to hopes that inflation will ease as oil prices come down, and notes that the average 30-year fixed rate has dropped to about 7.18%. She warns that forecasting rates is nearly impossible because mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, calling it "the impossible forecast is forecasting the 10-year, and therefore the mortgage rate."

The coverage is split on the latest direction. TradingView reported the MBA 30-year fixed contract mortgage rate at 7.21% for the November 6 week, down 9 basis points from one week earlier, down 29 basis points from four weeks earlier, and up 87 basis points from one year ago. Yahoo Finance reported the average US 30-year mortgage rate fell to 7.11% this week, marking its fourth straight decline. Quartz reported U.S. mortgage rates fell to 7.21% as home purchase applications rose. Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance both reported that US mortgage rates fell for a fourth week, lifting home purchases. CNBC reported that mortgage rates jumped sharply higher after easing for four straight weeks. Norada Real Estate Investments reported the 30-year fixed rate was down 12 basis points on November 11.

Marketplace.org also features Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather and Inside Mortgage Finance’s Guy Cecala, both of whom agree the decline is welcome but unlikely to revive the housing market on its own. Builders still face high interest rates, rising material costs, and labor shortages. No source provides a schedule for future rate moves or a consensus forecast.