A ‘Chaotic Race’ for the World’s Top Diplomat

Rebeca Grynspan received 12 encourage ballots in an informal Security Council straw poll on Thursday, Nov. 5, according to PassBlue. This total was one higher than her previous tally from an Oct. 30 poll, while her discourage votes dropped to three. Despite this progress, she still needs zero discourage votes and no vetoes from the Security Council for the body to recommend her as the nominee to the General Assembly. PassBlue noted speculation that the United States and Russia may have cast the discourage votes against her. Rafael Grossi of Argentina remained in second place with nine encourage, four discourage, and two no opinion votes. Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett of Guyana held her position with eight encourage votes, five discourage votes, and two no opinions. Other candidates like Olara Otunnu, María Fernanda Espinosa, and Ivonne A-Baki lagged behind with significantly higher discourage counts. New entrants into the chaotic race have faced distinct hurdles. PassBlue reported that Lana Nusseibeh, a candidate from the United Arab Emirates born in 1978 and announced on Oct. 21, has encountered strong pushback from civil society groups. This scrutiny stems from her country's alleged enabling role in the war in Sudan. The New York Times reported on Nov. 5 that UN investigators linked an Emirati security company tied to the ruling family to the deployment of Colombian mercenaries alongside the Rapid Support Forces. According to PassBlue, Nusseibeh has repeatedly denied Emirati support of the paramilitary group fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces. Human Rights Watch questioned whether Nusseibeh would defend the independence of UN investigative bodies examining her government's actions. Independent UN inquiries, including a September Human Rights Council fact-finding mission report, stated that the UAE played a significant role in networks involved in foreign military contractors and military support benefiting the RSF. Nusseibeh has stated in her campaign that ending the conflict is a priority. Feridun Sinirlioglu, 70, of Türkiye, announced his candidacy on Oct. 30 and received three encourage, eight discourage, and four no opinion votes in the Nov. 5 poll, falling far below the threshold of a viable contender. PassBlue noted that Sinirlioglu, a former foreign minister, UN ambassador, and secretary-general of the Organization for the Security and Cooperation in Europe, was included in the informal ballot before meeting with the General Assembly. His public dialogue was scheduled for Nov. 6, and an informal, private meeting with Council members is planned for Nov. 9. An outside expert told PassBlue that China may be insisting that informal polling remain undifferentiated to allow the five Latin American candidates more time to build support while Beijing evaluates Nusseibeh. In May, China's UN representative stated a preference for a female candidate and adherence to the UN's regional rotation system, noting that the Latin American-Caribbean area claims it is their turn for the post.